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The end of online piracy and the Internet as we know it

Posted: January 10th, 2008 | Author: Panagiotis Karageorgakis | Filed under: Culture, Future, Industry, Technology |

Ah, the Internet! A huge network of interconnected computers allowing users to exchange information of all kinds. It started with chunks of text, e-mail and simple web pages, but as connection lines improved and end-users got more bandwidth (speed) available, file-sharing became a reality: a haven of all the world’s digital riches, be it music, movies or software. That obscure indie band only a dozen of people know of? You can find it’s latest album online, for free. And the latest movies too, even before they hit the screens, for free as well. And if you ever need some kind of software, you don’t have to spend a penny; it’s available on the Internet at no cost.

Everything for free. Of course it’s illegal, but it’s free. File-sharing and peer-to-peer technologies have made this true: Napster, Kazaa, AudioGalaxy, Gnutella, Limewire, Soulseek are only a few of the apps and technologies that enabled users to exchange copyrighted information for free throughout the years. Online piracy increases exponentially, and the big guys (e.g. MPAA, IFPI etc) can do little to stop it. The latest and greatest in file-sharing technology, BitTorrent, has been characterized as a “hydra”, since whenever a file-sharing community is shut down, two or more new ones come into existence.

Let’s face it, people will always share copyrighted material with each other because it saves them money. And it does save a lot of money! For example, if a proud iPod owner would ever want to fill her 160GB iPod Classic with music she had bought online, it would cost her tens of thousands of dollars. But online piracy makes it easier for teens and everyday people who are not millionaires to enjoy thousands of songs in their music devices at no cost. Getting it illegally off the Internet is free, easy and makes the user’s life easier, but the artists and the record companies don’t see it this way. And in the end, they will find a way to win this battle, at least momentarily.

The only way to defeat online piracy

But how can the copyright holders win this battle? it’s easy: by charging the users. That’s right, charge the users for downloading illegal copies of copyrighted work, and if it’s possible, charge them more than the actual cost of buying a legitimate copy of the latest album, or a new movie, or some kind of software. That would put an end to online piracy, and it will. But how can you charge a computer user for downloading something from another user? How could the record companies achieve this?

The record companies cannot do this, but your Internet Service Provider (ISP) can. The Internet has given birth to online piracy because information exchange is “free”; you only pay a small fee to your ISP to gain unlimited access to the Internet and then you are able to download enormous amounts of data, be it legal or illegal — your ISP doesn’t care. But this is about to change since it will benefit both ISP’s and copyright holders, and the moment they realize that a deal is underway that will make them more profitable, the “free” era of the Internet will be over. And we’ll be the lucky ones to have witnessed this free era.

Today, as more greedy users around the world use peer-to-peer technologies to share files, the amount of traffic generated by file-sharing is huge, often utilizing all of a network’s available bandwidth and resources. Since when will ISP’s let their users save tens of thousands of dollars by not buying the stuff they want, but in the same time forcing the ISP’s themselves to spend tens of thousand of dollars to upgrade and improve their networks since there’s high demand for more bandwidth? Not for long, I predict. Especially when the copyright holders will make a deal with them to share profit.

In the near future, your Internet subscription will come with a different policy. You’ll still pay a fee to access the Internet and have unlimited data access to normal or featured content for fair use. But when you use the network for file-sharing, distribution of copyright content, illegal material or other uses, you will be charged for it, by the volume of traffic you create. The key phrases in the last sentence are “fair use”, “featured content” and “other uses”. Essentially, the policy that your ISP will enforce you will read “as long as you use our network to access the Internet for web browsing, e-mail and other things we consider to be fair use, we will not charge you; but if you download copyrighted stuff or do anything else we don’t approve, you will have to pay for every byte of that traffic”.

This is already happening for Internet access over your mobile phone. Do you think you can use your mobile phone’s GPRS access with an unlimited data plan to download the latest and greatest TV shows to your computer for free? Think again! Ian, a poor guy, had that idea, but ended up owing Vodafone 27,000 pounds. This is a true story. Now imagine the same thing applied to all Internet access, be it DSL or cable and you’re getting the idea.

ISP’s are already getting into the game of assisting the battle against online piracy. But filtering data will not offer much, users will utilize cryptography and other means to still cloak their illegal activities. ISP’s and copyright holders will realize that people are going to stop sharing content only at the moment it stops being free. This will stop people from stealing away copyrighted content, force them to buy the stuff they want, and still make ISP’s more profitable by charging those foolish enough to insist on file-sharing in hope that they won’t get caught.

Featured content will still cost nothing to download. This means that, for example, you’ll be able to pay iTunes Music Store the amount of 9,99 euros and download a music album without paying anything to your ISP, since it’s featured content, traffic from a known, legal source. But if you choose to download an illegal copy of the album from, say, BitTorrent, and are charged at a rate of 0.001 euros / kB you’ll end up paying the same amount of money, if not more, and still face the possibility of getting caught and go to jail for your crime. So which option would you choose?

Now think of this: iTunes Music Store drops it’s prices so you get an album for 8 euros. In the same time, ISP’s charge more than 0.001 euro / kB for traffic that is not “fair use”, so downloading the album will cost you 12 euros. It will be cheaper to buy a legitimate copy than download it illegally. The moment this happens, online piracy will die. And the organizations with the fancy acronyms will grin and celebrate their victory, but it will not last long.

The future of the Internet

It is obvious that this will be the end of the Internet as we know it. The Network that started as a military project and soon became the ultimate medium for telecommunications around the globe, will not be as free as it is today. Downloading stuff will cost you bucks. In the years to come, our times will be remembered as those days of the “free” Internet, those times that people were able to download anything for free and we’ll be nostalgically write about it in our future blogs, or whatever blogs will evolve to.

But people will not give up. As soon as the new policies will apply, people will find other means of communicating to each other for free by not using the Internet. Ad-hoc, peer-to-peer wireless networks spanning entire cities already exist and you can join such a network just by placing your wireless access point outside in order to have a good signal. Computer users will start connecting to each other using WiFi, forming a new network that belongs to the users, not ISP’s, since the air is (still) free. This is already happening, but in the future it will be the only way to exchange information for free, so more and more users will join these networks.

More and more of these wireless “darknets” will form, closed communities run by the users, for the users, screening new entries in order to keep the record companies, ISP’s, spies and law enforcement officers away from witnessing the distribution of illegally copied data, thus creating a new haven of free file-sharing. There will still be a need for these networks to become interconnected to each other, and they will do so, by utilizing ground networks that allow them to do so. University networks, for example, or ISPs of “questionable ethics” that will allow the free flow of data for very low monthly fees. A new Network, more chaotic and decentralized than the current Internet that will form a new community for users and a new market for businesses.

And when the “Airnet” of the future will become a reality, copyright holders and organizations will have to defeat online piracy again. Will they be able to regulate wireless communications, or charge for using the air as a medium to transmit signals? Who knows what will happen when the air will become so congested by all the information travelling through it. That is, if there’s still air to breathe and we hadn’t destroyed Earth’s atmosphere by continuing to severely pollute our planet…

We are, indeed, living in interesting times.

Updates

[Jan 16, 2008] Ars Technica recently published an article discussing that filtering is about to become a reality in College networks as well as ISPs, while today it discusses about a debate that takes place on the New York Times, about whether ISPs should be forced to play a vital part in fighting piracy by filtering content, and how this idea is probably going to fail.

[Jan 17, 2008] Ars Technica today writes about a leaked memo indicating that Time Warner Cable is about to apply bandwidth caps to it’s users, initially on a trial basis. I believe that this is a first step towards the scheme I predict in this article, if it finally becomes true. When users will become frustrated about reaching the specified bandwidth caps, they may be given the option to pay extra for more bandwidth, or engage a different policy that will bill them according to the “kind” of traffic they create.


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One Comment on “The end of online piracy and the Internet as we know it”

  1. #1 Chaos Motor said at 3:47 pm on January 10th, 2008:

    Indeed these are interesting times. Just when the big guys think they can control the game, all the rules change.

    Read how I’m changing the rules out from underneath them at my blog here:
    http://chaosmotor.wordpress.com/2008/01/10/imagine-a-world-of-freedom-and-openness/